Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but very few government figures or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has has something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
